In 2010/11, Poland’s fruit and vegetable output recorded notable declines due to adverse weather patterns. Tighter raw material stocks should reflect itself in lower output of fruit and vegetable preserves for nearly every product. In 2011/12, horticultural production should rebound but farmers and processors must face new challenges holding unforeseen consequences on the market, such as rising costs, lingering concerns over E Coli and Russia’s embargo of Polish fresh vegetables. Initial forecasts are for increased production of juices and exports of fresh apples, stronger export prices for strawberries but weaker for fresh apples and apple juice.

General Information: 2010/11 Production.

The 2010 fruit crop in Poland amounted to 2.7 million tons which was 25 percent lower than in the previous year. Tree fruit crops were lower by 29 percent (including 30 percent fall in apples) and berry fruits by 3 percent. Only raspberry, chokeberry, and high bush blueberry crops were higher than in 2009. Production of field vegetables fell by 12 percent to 4.25 million tons. The biggest losses were reported for onions, cabbages, carrots and cauliflowers. Production of vegetables under cover decreased by 4 percent and is estimated at 760,000 tons. Decrease of the production in Poland resulted from unfavorable weather conditions for crop husbandry during the whole 2010/11 growing season. Fruit preserve production decreased by 10 percent to 730,000 tons. Total production of soft juices, nectars, and fruit and vegetable drinks decreased to 1.55 million tons in 2010/11 from 1.59 million tons in 2009/10. Production of concentrated soft fruit juice decreased more than 25 percent and is estimated at the level of 35,000 tons. The highest drop was reported for concentrated apple juice (by approximately 33 percent) and concentrated cherry juice (by 75 percent). Production of concentrated apple juice is estimated at the level of 140,000 tons and cherry juice at only 3,500 tons. Production of concentrated strawberry juice decreased by 40 percent to only 4,000 tons, and concentrated raspberry juice fell by 20 percent to 1,900 tons. In 2010/11 production of concentrated red currants juice decreased to 3,000 tons from 3,200, and production of concentrated chokeberry juice decreased to 4,500 tons from 5,000. Only production of concentrated black currant juice increased from 12,500 to 13,000 tons. In 2010/11 frozen fruit production decreased by 5 percent (to 310,000 tons), mainly due to decrease of strawberry, tart cherry, plum, red currants and gooseberry. Production of frozen black currant has been reported stable, and frozen raspberries noted 5 percent increase. In 2010/11 vegetable preserves production remained flat at approximately 1 million tons; only the production of dry vegetable and tomato concentrate production was reported to be lower. 2010/11 export and import Institute of Food Economics reported that 2010/11 export of nearly all fruits, vegetables and preserves was lower than in the 2009/10 season. Only the export of cucumbers, tinned vegetables and dried vegetables was reported to be higher. The total export of fresh fruits and vegetables in 2010/11 amounted to approximately 1 million tons, compared to 1.4 million tons in 2009/10. The deciding factor was the lower export of apples and onions. Export of fruit and vegetable preserves decreased by 14 percent to 1.06 million tons (1.23 million tons in 2009/10). The largest reduction (36 percent) was reported for fruit juice concentrates (to 170,000 tons). Frozen fruit export decreased by 6 percent to 270,000 tons. Frozen vegetable export fell by 10 percent to 300,000 tons. The import of so called exotic fruit and preserves was lower (mainly reserved for concentrated citrus juice). Import of nearly all vegetable products increased (mainly onion, cruciferous vegetable, and tomato concentrate); however decreases were noted for cucumber, lettuces, pickled vegetable and canned corn. In 2010/11, both export and import prices of most fruit, vegetable, and their preserves increased year over year. As a result, incomes from exports increased by 5 percent (equivalent to EUR 1.67 billion) while the import value of the whole product complex increased by 14 percent (equivalent to EUR 1.79 billion). The negative balance of foreign trade balance for this complex, however, turned negative (EUR 127 million); in comparison to a 2009/10 positive balance (EUR 11 million). New season, new challenges An early May freeze (May 3-5) (-5C/23F at the ground) that raised concern among fruit and vegetable growers over widespread crop damage, proved unfounded as the final assessment show only some local loss was recorded. In 2011 fruit crops are estimated at approximately 3 million tons an increase in output based on better early season weather conditions. Some recalibration of production estimates is underway due to a dry June. June 2011 brought new challenges: E coli outbreak in Germany followed by Russian embargo for fresh vegetable from the EU-27. At the beginning of June thousands of tons of vegetable ended up in dumpsters and vegetable growers across Europe faced major economic losses. Although authorities assured Polish consumers on the safeness of Polish produce vegetable demand has declined since beginning of June. At the biggest Polish wholesale market in Bronisze, traders assured retailers that lettuce, tomatoes, cucumbers, and radish are local product. During the first week of the German E-coli outbreak Polish wholesalers reported sales dropped by more than 50 percent. Large supermarkets sold 80 percent less vegetables. Although the sanitary authorities report regularly that produce have been regularly tested for E coli and no contamination has been found, demand for all fresh vegetables decreased radically. Although Russian embargo on Polish fresh vegetable may seem not to be very severe, losses are significant for fresh tomato producers whose main buyer in June and July is Russia. In 2010 Poland exported to Russia 3,000 tons of fresh tomatoes in June (US$ 3.2 million) and 2,000 ton in July (US$ 2.4 million). These quantities represented 23 and 22 percent of total fresh tomato exported during June and July 2010, respectively. Poland exports to Russia mainly cabbage, apples, pears, and frozen fruits and frozen vegetable. Total value of exported fresh fruit and vegetable in to Russia 2010 is estimated €120 million (in 2009: €75 million). 2011/12 strawberry forecast June 2011 brought high strawberry prices. Fruit quality is higher than last year and production is estimated now at 165,000 MT (down from 180,000 MT due to freeze in May and dry weather in June, which shortened the picking season). Due to low or no stocks, the industry is paying a premium over that for the fruit in previous years. One kilogram of strawberry costs US$1.60 (PLN 4.50, exchange rate: US$1 = PLN 2.8058). Poland is a major supplier of processed strawberries to the EU. In 2009/10, Poland exported 101,000 MT of frozen strawberries, of which 90,000 MT went to other Member States, mainly to Germany and Netherlands. Poland also exports to Russia (6,000 MT) and Norway (3,000 MT). In 2009/10, Poland imported a small amount of processed strawberries from Netherlands and Belgium (3,000 MT) and China (1,000 MT). Polish fresh strawberries are exported on a very small scale. In 2009/10, Poland exported 11,000 MT to the EU-27, mainly to Germany (4,000 MT) and Netherlands (4,000 MT), and 5,000 MT to Russia. Poland also imports small amount of fresh strawberries in early spring, mainly from Spain and Turkey. In 2011, the quantity of strawberries for processing is estimated at 100,000 MT, out of which 10,000 MT may go for concentrated juice with 90,000 MT for freezing. Ending stocks for both 2010/11 and 2011/12 are projected to be minimal. Imports of frozen strawberry for both seasons are expected to be at similar levels due to high raw material cost (approximately EUR 1 per kilogram). Extra-EU import may increase slightly to capture less costly Chinese frozen strawberries. China’s production and quality remain are an unknown variable however. 2011/12 CAJ and frozen fruit forecast In 2011/12, concentrated apple juice production is projected to increase by 30 percent in comparison to the previous season. The expectation for increased domestic apple production and raw material imports drive this projection. Production of concentrated black currant and strawberry juice is expected to be lower, however while that for cherry and raspberry juice is expected to increase. In 2011/12 total frozen fruit production is forecast to decrease to 300,000 tons. While exports of fresh apple and concentrated apple juice are expected to increase, those of other concentrated juices is expected to remain stable. In 2011/12 export prices for strawberries and currants are projected higher; while those for fresh apples and CAJ are projected lower in comparison to the previous season

90 rubles / kg but not exceeding 100 rubles / kg. As the experience of the past in 2011, the rise in prices above 100 rubles / kg, can significantly affect the level of demand and forcing manufacturers to look for alternative products.
It was an interesting situation with the price of raspberries extra and raspberries Gris on the wholesales market. In early 2011 the price of extra raspberries was stable at 2.2-2.3 euros / kg in Poland, or 120-130 $ / kg in Russia. The price of raspberries Grice was 1.45 euro / kg at a factory in Poland or the 90-95 rubles / kg in Russia.
In August-September 2011 with the beginning of a new crop of raspberries in Serbia, there was a change in market prices for frozen raspberries. Serbian producers began selling frozen raspberries with extra 1.65 euro / kg, with a better product.
Prices of Polish raspberries fell almost immediately after the appearance of cheap Serbian raspberries. Polish producers reduced the price for extra raspberries to 1.65 euro / kg and the raspberries to Grice 1,2-1,25 Euro / kg.
In early October, Polish producers again reduced the price for frozen raspberries extra to 1.55 euro / kg and the raspberries Grice price remained unchanged until November.
In Russia, prices for raspberries and gradually began to decline with the advent of frozen raspberries next harvest.
In November, there was a new price reduction on the extra raspberries to 1.45 euro / kg and 1.05 euro / kg raspberry Gris. Until the end of 2011, data prices have stabilized and stopped at these levels. Prices of raspberries extrusion in Russia has stabilized at 105-110 rubles / kg for raspberries Grice prices also fell from 90 rubles / kg in June and July to 80 rubles / kg in November and December.
According to our data, prices in Serbia are also continuing to decline. Serbian producers are willing to sell raspberries extrusion already on 1.4 euro / kg, but on a prepaid basis. According to our data, the average stock in Serbia remain frozen raspberries extra. Therefore, most likely, the price of frozen raspberries extra stabilized at a minimum level of 1.4 euro / kg to March 2012. In April, as a rule, you can expect sales decline and the demand for frozen berries, so it is possible further drop in prices for raspberries, which can be triggered by the Serbian producers.
Prices for frozen raspberries extra in China in early August were relatively high compared with prices in Poland and Serbia. But the overall market conditions to lower prices for frozen raspberries resulted in lower prices for raspberries extra raspberries and Grice in China by the end of 2011.
The situation with frozen strawberries in the wholesale market in Russia remains volatile. In early 2011 the market volume of supply of strawberries exceeded demand. Things began to change by March 2011. Due to large amounts of stocks frozen strawberries in Russia, most vendors have started selling it at reduced prices. This has led to increased demand and increased sales of frozen strawberries at the end of Q1 2011. It seems that most vendors have implemented most of the sale of their stocks during this period.
Prices for frozen strawberries in the 1st quarter of 2011 seriously varied depending on quality. Traditionally, the wholesale market, the greatest demand is presented to the frozen strawberries 2 class. The price of strawberries 1 class at that time was formed in the range of 65-70 rubles / kg. The most expensive strawberries - frozen strawberries 15-25 mm calibrated. As a rule, at her last 2 years is relatively stable demand. Few suppliers can offer a stable quality of strawberries. The price of a calibrated strawberries 1 class of 75 rubles / kg. The price of a calibrated strawberries 1 class 25-35 mm was formed at 65-70 rubles / kg. The cheapest segment - frozen strawberries 2 class is a wide range of prices at that time from 55 to 65 rubles / kg. At the end of Q1 2011, some sellers have lowered prices for strawberries 2 class to 50 rubles / kg, which had an impact on overall demand for frozen strawberries.
At the end of Q2 2011, i.e. in May-June 2011, the deficit began to take shape strawberries. Prices for strawberries 1 class 25-35 mm, re-stabilized around 65 rubles / kg, although in April and early May, prices have dropped to 60 rubles / kg. Prices for strawberries 2 class also gradually increased to 60 rubles / kg while maintaining the upward trend in prices. At this point, it was clear that the price of strawberries in China will be even higher than last year. If in 2010, the price of 1.5 USD / kg in the port of St. Petersburg was considered expensive, then in 2011 - 1.5 USD / kg, was considered cheap already. Prices in China were formed from 1.6 USD / kg in the port of St. Petersburg. Prices rose rapidly and stabilized only about the level of 1.8-2 USD / kg depending on quality. For example, the price of frozen strawberries uncalibrated 2 class was formed at 1.65 USD / kg.
Thus, in June and July, a gradual rise in prices for frozen strawberries next harvest. In Poland, the price of strawberries is also from the very beginning of harvest grew rapidly from 1.5 euros / kg in the factories in Poland to 1.8-1.9 euro / kg.
In Russia, prices for frozen strawberries continue to behave very differently. As always in times of uncertainty in the September-October 2011, the wholesale market there were proposals for frozen strawberries at 55 rubles / kg, which is lower than last year. This in principle could not be. As before, there was an average deficit of frozen strawberries 2 class, which is especially popular in Russia. Dollar exchange rate in Russia rose from 28 rubles / dollar in August to 32 rubles / dollar in October. Obviously, prices can not fall under such conditions. In November 2011 the price of strawberries situation gradually stabilized. Prices for Chinese 2 class strawberries were formed at 70-75 rubles / kg, the price of a class of 25-35 mm, China - 75-85 rubles / kg, the price of frozen strawberries calibrated 1 class 15-25 mm Country of origin Poland - 105 -110 rubles / kg.
The situation with the prices for blackberries also remains uncertain.
According to forecasts of manufacturers, with the beginning of a new harvest of blackberries was to begin its scarcity and rising prices. The rise in prices has occurred in China. Prices in China have grown blackberries. But prices for frozen blackberries in Poland remained stable. For example, in early 2011, the price of blackberries was 1.2 euros / kg, in Russia the price of blackberries remained stable at 75-80 rubles / kg.
Prices for Chinese frozen blackberries are also consistent with market prices in Russia.
Polish producers have raised the average price for frozen blackberries in October, only temporarily till 1,25-1,3 euro / kg. Most manufacturers continue to predict a further rise in prices for frozen blackberries.
In Russia the price of blackberries began to rise in December 2011. By the end of December, prices rose an average of 90 rubles / kg, while maintaining the upward trend.
Frozen blackcurrants grown considerably in price. In January 2011 the price for frozen black currants was 0,98-1,05 € / kg on average. The price of frozen currants remained stable until the end of June 2011. In Russia, prices for frozen black currants remained stable at 60-70 rubles / kg. Since June 2011 prices began to rise gradually. On average, Polish producers have begun to raise prices for frozen black currants in June from 1 to 1.2 euros / kg. In Russia, prices also began to rise in June from 65 rubles / kg to an average of 75 rubles / kg on the average wholesale market.
In the period from June to August 2011, prices rose an average of 1.2 euros / kg to 1.8-1.9 € / kg in Poland. In Russia, prices also increased significantly from 75 rubles / kg to an average of 100-105 rubles / kg.
In autumn 2011 the price of frozen black currants relatively stabilized in Poland and in Russia at these levels.
In November-December 2011, prices for frozen black currants fell slightly in price on average from 1.9 euro / kg to 1,8-1,85 Euro / kg. Given the rise of the euro against the ruble from 39 USD / Euro in August to 41.5 rubles / euros in November and December, it's almost not influenced by wholesale prices. By the end of December, prices of frozen black currants have been established for 105-110 rubles / kg on average
Prices for frozen berries have dropped significantly compared to the 2010-2011 year.
The price for the Russian frozen cranberries dropped from 200-220 rubles / kg in winter and summer of 2011 to 120 rubles / kg in September 2011, with a gradual increase up to 140 rubles / kg in November-December 2011. At this point, the average prices in the wholesale market formed and stabilized at 140-150 rubles / kg. The price of frozen cranberries also depends on the quality of the product. The price of frozen cranberries electronic clearing established at 160-165 rubles / kg.
The weather conditions in the North West have allowed the majority of suppliers to collect fresh cranberries for longer than usual until October 2011. This suggests that the amount of cranberry harvesting must be greater than last year. Accordingly, the prices are not likely to change significantly until May-June 2012. As always during the summer period and subject to adjustment as a reduction in prices and growth. Most likely, it is possible that some small price increases before the next harvest of cranberries in September 2012.
The price of frozen lingonberries fell from 200-220 rubles / kg in early 2011 to 160-170 rubles / kg at the end of 2011. In September 2011, prices of frozen lingonberries were formed at 130-140 rubles / kg. In connection with the harvest below average, but higher than last year, and the decline in demand for frozen russian lingonberries, prices have fallen to these levels. Demand in general for frozen lingonberries also fell compared to last year. Most likely, prices will not change significantly and stabilized 160-170 rubles / kg. Rising prices for frozen lingonberries possible in the summer May-August, as most of the stocks will be sold during the winter, and most sellers will have no cranberries.
Prices for frozen blueberries to the end of 2011 reached the same marks on the average, and that at the end of 2010. Prices for frozen blueberries in the middleformed at around 170-180 rubles / kg. Prices for frozen blueberries may continue torise in 2012 due to the relatively low yield and high purchase prices. But at the sametime, be aware that proposals for all types of frozen berries continue to come from Belarus.

http://www.freshplaza.com/news_detail.asp?id=74602

China’s exports of frozen strawberries will increase by nine percent to 105,000 MT in MY2010, mainly due to growing import demand in European markets. Imports of frozen strawberries remain virtually unchanged at 10,500 MT in MY2010. Production in MY2011 is forecast at 1.750MMT, assuming normal weather conditions. Post will continue to closely monitor crop conditions during the current harvest season (Dec 2010 – June 2011) in Hebei, Shandong, and Liaoning provinces (the top three producers), which account for close to 60 percent of China’s total strawberry production.

http://gain.fas.usda.gov

Author: Carlo Braga

 www.freshplaza.com